It'll take you from knowing nothing to being able to fully apply Bayes' theorem or multiple linear regression.

它将带你从一无所知到能够完全应用斯定理或多元线性回归。

When did we start calling it Bayes?

我们什么时候开始叫它斯?

You understand the heart of Bayes' theorem.

您了解斯定理的核心。

And that requires us to talk about Bayes rule and also probability density functions.

我们讨论斯规则和概率密度函数。

So this plot is meant to show usage of Bayes.

所以个图是为了展示斯的用法。

For this case, we do have a Bayes rule, once more.

对于种况，我们再次有斯规则。

This, my friends, is Bayes' theorem.

我的朋友们，就是斯定理。

I was reading through a Bayes book that carried through this argument about the prosecutor's fallacy.

我正在阅读一斯的书，书贯穿了关于检察官谬误的论点。

It's very commonly used to introduce the topic of bayes rule in  probability.

它非常常用于介绍概率中的斯规则主题。

In the context of Bayes' theorem, this value also has a special name, it's the " likelihood" .

在斯定理的背景下，个值还有一个特殊的名字，那就是“可能性”。

I think that's what this notation says, but we don't see so clearly Bayes' theorem.

我认为就是个符号所说的，但我们没有那么清楚地看到斯定理。

The logic there is completely the same but the Bayes factor  that you compute is going to look different.

逻辑完全相同，但您计算的斯因子看起来会有所不同。

Now let's contrast this  with the usual way that Bayes rule is written, which is a bit more complicated.

现在让我们将其与斯规则的通常编写方式进行对比，斯规则的编写方式稍微复杂一些。

What that would mean is that our  Bayes factor is 90 instead of 10, the test is doing more work for us.

意味着我们的斯因子是 90 而不是 10，测试为我们做了更多的工作。

In our example this number is 10. This is the Bayes factor, also sometimes called the likelihood ratio.

在我们的示例中， 该数字为 10。 是斯因子，有时也称为似然比。

Each answer to that question gives you a new Bayes factor, a new thing that you multiply by your odds.

个问题的每个答案都会给你一个新的斯因子，一个你乘以你的赔率的新东西。

The reason I don't like using this notation in general, even though I can see Bayes' Theorem, is that bar usually means given.

即使我可以看到斯定理，我通常不喜欢使用种表示法的原因是 bar 通常表示给定。

Wo taking this more honest representation of it,   let's compare our two versions of Bayes rule.

让我们比较一下斯规则的两个版。

But with the other formula, to do that you have to recompute everything each time, you can't  leverage a pre-computed Bayes factor the same way.

但对于另一个公式， 做到一点， 您必须每次都重新计算所有内容，您不能以相同的方式利用预先计算的斯因子。

The upshot, and this is the key mantra underlying Bayes' theorem, is that new evidence should not completely determine your beliefs in a vacuum; it should update prior beliefs.

结果是，新的证据不应该在真空中完全决定你的信念，也是斯定理的关键原则。它应该更新先前的信念。